Planning Assumptions

There are six categories of planning assumptions. They are Demographics, the Economy and Employment, Education Trends, Social Trends, Public Policies, and Technology. The symbols after each planning assumption are the citations for the original data or information used by the CMP Task Force. The first letter denotes one of the six planning categories indicated above. The second letter indicates one of the three levels of data/information sources: N for national, S for state and L for local. The digits before the last hyphen are the sequence of the data/information collected and archived by PRO. The last digits are the page numbers. For example, D-S-3-2,4 would mean pages 2 and 4, in the third document collected from the State level for Demographics.

Demographics

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2. Employers are focusing equally on skills as well as degrees. Programs and curricula are needed that respond to changing industry demands. [EC-N-5-2,3,4/ EC-N-6-3/ EC-N-7-40,41/ EC-L-1-1,2,3.]

3. Occupations with the greatest projected growth in Santa Cruz County are a mixture of low-skill, low-wage jobs such as fast food service workers and cashiers and higher-skill, higher-wage jobs such as computer support specialists, software engineers and police officers. Computer Support Specialist is the fastest growing occupation, followed by Computer Software Engineers, Network and Computer Systems Administrators, and Special Education, Preschool, and Kindergarten teachers. Other high growth occupations include Carpenters, Human Service Assistants, Teachers, and Nurses. Demand significantly exceeds supply in many of the health occupations, particularly nursing, medical imaging, medical assisting, and dental hygiene. [EC-S-5-1,2,3,4/ EC-L-6-1.]

4. Santa Cruz County businesses continue to emphasize the importance of time management, communication skills, personal responsibility and other SCANS skills (Secretary’s Commission on Achieving Necessary Skills) in their hiring decisions. [EC-L-6-1.]

5. Forrester Research estimated that close to 275,000 high tech jobs from the U.S. will be outsourced overseas next year and this trend is expected to result in the loss of 4 million jobs by 2015. [EC-N-8-1.]

6. The most requested training programs by Santa Cruz area businesses are in the areas of healthcare, business plans, financing, accounting, marketing, office skills training, communication and customer service training, leadership and supervisory skills training, and basic skills training. [EC-L-1-1,2,3.]

7. Job growth is concentrated in managerial, professional, technical, healthcare, and education occupations, all of which require college-level skills. [EC-N-2-1/ EC-N-3-1,2/ EC-N-4-1/ EC-S-3-4,11,12,17/ EC-L-2-1,2,3/ EC-L-6,15.]

8. Watsonville, with its large seasonal workforce, has twice the unemployment rate (12.8%) of that of the county (6.1%). The unemployment rate at Watsonville varies by months of year with winter months reaching lower teens and coming back to county average in summer months. [EC-N-0-1,2/ EC-L-2-1.]

9. The daily number of county residents commuting to Silicon Valley is approximately 10-15% of the population or 25,000 to 35,000 people. College course-taking for them is likely to take place only in the evening or on weekends. [EC-L-8-1,2,3.]

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2. One quarter of the courses desired by Cabrillo College students are vocationally oriented courses. About 26% of the non-transferable enrollments at Cabrillo are vocational and the percentage increases to 51% when considering introductory vocational courses such as keyboarding, beginning level accounting, and the like. [ED-L-2-1,2,3,4,5/ ED-L-3.]

3. The Vocational Education Follow-up Survey indicated that over 1/3 of the former Cabrillo vocational students noticed the need to have more computer and interpersonal skills training after they left. [ED-L-4-1,2,3,4.]

4. CalWorks referrals from the county will continue, as will the need for tracking and support within, and beyond, the 18-24 month program requirement. [D-L-5-47/ EC-N-10-1/ ED-L-5-1.]

5. One out of two community college students take remedial courses. Close to 40% of degree and certificate recipients took a basic skills course during their study at Cabrillo. [ED-L-3.]

6. The need is increasing for community colleges to form partnerships with local industry and governmental organizations in order to conduct contract education. [ED-L-1-1,2,3/ ED-N-3-1,2/ ED-S-1-1,2.]

7. Course offerings should include a variety of distance learning opportunities. There will be an increased demand for distance learning. Distance education at Cabrillo has experienced double digit (21%) growth between 2002 and 2003. [ED-N-4-1/ ED-L-6-1-8/ ED-L-7-19.]

8. Low assessment scores in English and Math, earned by graduating high school seniors, indicate a need for continued outreach activities in the areas of curricula and college preparation. [ED-L-7-30,31.]

9. Watsonville High and Aptos High, which are the large “feeder” high schools to the college, in 2001, obtained API (Academic Performance Index) scores of 488 and 673 respectively. (The scale is 200–1,000 based on standardized test scores.) The ranking on a statewide level using deciles puts Watsonville High in the lowest ranking of 1 and Aptos a ranking of 7 on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest. [ED-L-1-67.]

10. Public schools in the county are making progress in reducing dropout rates. The Four Year Dropout Rate* for Hispanic high school students has come down from 19.4 in 96/97 to 6.7 in 01/02 year. However, this is still much higher than Caucasian students whose Four Year Dropout Rate dropped from 12.7 in 96/97 to only 2.4 in 01/02. Caucasian students have had the same rate for the past 3 years, while Hispanic students’ drop rate in 00/01 was 13.5 and 7.8 in 99/00. (*The Four Year Dropout Rate is an estimate of the percent of students who would drop out during a four-year period, based on data collected for a single year.) [ED-L-1-87.]

11. Students have changing needs and want course choice and convenience. [ED-L-2-1,2,3,4,5.]

12. Although the trend and demand for online learning is strong and positive, the basic course delivery mechanism in community colleges will remain traditional. [ED-N-4-1/ ED-L-6-1-9/ ED-L-7-19.]

13. The new accreditation standards are aggressive in gearing colleges toward developing clear and measurable learning outcomes. In addition, the diverse student population in age, goals, background, and economic status requires us to explore a variety of teaching modalities and hiring practices. [ED-N-4-1/ ED-S-1-1,2/ ED-L-2-1,2,3,4,5/ ED-L-7-19/ ED-S-8-1-29.]

14. A little over 10% of students at Cabrillo have some form of disability and almost half are related to learning disabilities (LD). A recent study by PRO indicated that LD students do equally well as non-LD students as measured by degrees/certificates and by units attempted. [ED-L-8-1.]

15. Close to 40% of the new students assess into the lowest math classes; close to 20% of new students assess into the lowest English classes. Low skills will present obstacles to students achieving academic goals. [ED-L-7,8,9,22,31.]

16. Compared to 4-year institutions, a disproportionately large number of students attending community colleges have childcare needs. This translates into a demand for resources. [EC-N-2-6, EC-N-2-5 / EC-N-11-2 / EC-S-4-1 / ED-S-3-1 / ED-L-1-90,91/ ED-L-2-1,2,3,4,5/ ED-L-9.]

17. Access to higher education for all is becoming the top value of a community college as indicated by the American Association of Community Colleges (AACC). The other values include community responsiveness, clear focus on student learning, and resourcefulness. [ED-N-5-1,2/ ED-N-6-1,2/ ED-S-1-12.]

18. There will be an increased demand for English as a Second Language (ESL) education. [D-L-4-8/ ED-L-1-73-77.]

19. Community colleges will continue to depend on adjunct faculty. [ED-N-6-1-7/ ED-S-2-1.]

20. Cabrillo College will continue to serve as the point of entry to post-secondary education for high school graduates who are not ready for, and/or cannot be accommodated by, the UC and CSU systems. [ED-N-5-1,2/ ED-N-7-1,2/ ED-S-3-1,2,3,4,5/ ED-S-4-1,2/ ED-L-7-9,22,31.]

21. There are other education providers offering programs and services similar to those provided by Cabrillo College that are available to our potential student population. [ED-S-5-1/ ED-S-6-1.]

22. Lifelong Learning is a concept that seeks to build a long term relationship between students of all ages and background. A large portion of our students are likely lifelong learners (close to 20% of students took only on average one course in fall 2003) who live and work in our County. The connection between them and Cabrillo is important to both. [ED-N-8-2/ ED-S-6-1/ ED-S-7-1/ ED-L-8-1/ ED-L-9-1.]

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3. Community colleges continue the struggle to seek a proportionally higher share of funding. [ED-N-3-1,2/ ED-N-7-1,2/ ED-N-8-1,2,3,4/ ED-S-3-1-5/ ED-S-4-1,2/ ED-S-7-1,2,3/ P-N-1-1/ P-N-2-1/ P-S-1-1,2,3.]

4. In the next decade there may be an increased movement toward state-mandated accountability measures and performance based funding. [P-N-4-1-14/ P-N-5-1,2,3,4/ P-S-1-6.]

5. Our community will continue to treat education as one of its top concerns. [ED-L-1-82-86/ P-N-1-1.]

6. Parking continues to be the greatest complaint expressed by students in student surveys. Students report that, during peak class hours, difficulty finding parking often results in them being late to class. Staff and students surveyed report that they would be more likely to ride the bus to Cabrillo if they received bus passes or if bus trips were quicker (e.g., more express buses, more direct routings to reduce bus changes). [ED-L-2-1,2,3,4,5/ P-L-1-1-17.]

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2. Faculty and staff, as well as the general population, will continue to require opportunities for updating skills. [ED-L-4-1.]

3. The District will continue to have an involved voting population. The voter turn out rate for the county was 48.8% in March 2000 Primary as compared to 34.6% statewide. [D-L-5-203-206]

4. There is an increasing gap in income between those who are economically disadvantaged and those who are more affluent. [EC-L-5-14-19.]

5. The need for job training programs, skills certificates, and other programs with fewer general education requirements will increase. Those who have obtained these skills may seek opportunities for career development, general education and lifelong learning that can lead to higher levels of degree attainment. [EC-L-1-1-1,2,3/ ED-N-1-1/ ED-N-2-1,2,3,4/ ED-S-1-1,2/ ED-L-1to58/ EC-L-1-1,2,3.]

6. Traffic congestion continues to be an issue on the minds of the local community and its service providers. There will be a continued push for alternative modes of transportation in this county. [S-L-234,235/ P-L-1-1-17.]

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2. The Internet and other technologies will continue to have an increased role in education. [ED-N-10-1-35/ T-N-1-2/ T-S-4-1.]

3. Technology-based course delivery in general will require increased resources. [T-N-7-1,2/ T-N-8-1/ T-N-9-1,2,3,4/ T-N-10-1,2/ T-S-4-1.]

4. There is an increasing demand for online distance learning classes and off-campus classes. [T-N-7-1,2/ T-N-8-1/ T-N-9-1,2,3,4/ T-N-10-1,2.]

5. Technology-mediated learning tools can enhance educational quality, i.e., accommodating different learning styles. [T-N-1-1,2,3,4,5/ T-N-6-5/ T-N-7-1,2/ T-N-8-1/ T-N-9-1,2,3,4/ T-N-10-1,2/ T-N-17-107.]

6. The loss of funding for Total Cost of Ownership model (T.C.O.) at the Tech II State level, shifts the burden of maintaining currency of technology to the local campus. [T-N-6-5/ T-S-3-7,14/ T-S-4-1-24.]

7. There will be an ongoing need to anticipate the changes in hardware and software technologies, which support current and future instructional needs. [T-N-1-1,2,3,4,5/ T-N-12-1,2/ T-S-3-1,7,14.]

8. The State’s Technology II Strategic Plan includes a goal of making 50% of classrooms multi-media ready by 2005. Right now about 80 classrooms are so equipped among over 150 classrooms at Cabrillo. [T-S-3-1-51/ T-L-5-1.]

9. Information literacy has become an accepted component of higher education. [T-N-1-1,2,4,5/ T-N-4-1/ T-S-5-1/ T-L-1-104.]

10. There will be a continued demand by students for wireless networking [T-L-4-1,2,3,4/ T-N-14-1/ T-N-15-30/ T-N-16-1,2/ T-N-17, 1,2,3.]

With the assumptions made in the above areas that directly affect how the college plans, operates and evaluates itself, the next natural step in the master planning process is to translate the implications of these assumptions into master plan objectives. These objectives, with yearly targets clearly specified, are then grouped under each of the six overarching and long standing goals of the college. Further, in order to achieve the objectives, action plans that specifically address the targets of the objectives will be developed and accomplished on a yearly basis.  

This is the cycle of Cabrillo’s master planning and it completes such a cycle every three years.

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